Founder calibration
The book of being wrong, on purpose.
Every row is a number you wrote before the fact. 7 have met reality. Nothing here is a vibe.
Expected versus actual
Left is what you said. Right is what happened.
- 01
The private repo still receives a push at least weekly.
Technical estimates · Aug 30, 2026
said 7
was 2
hit · 3.5× high
- 02
40 people sign up after the private-repo decision.
Growth estimates · Aug 25, 2026
said 40
was 11
missed · 3.6× high
- 03
Zero unapproved external posts in the first 30 days of the queue.
Technical estimates · Aug 8, 2026
said 0
was 0
hit · on the number
- 04
12 approved /post sends in the first 30 days.
Distribution estimates · Aug 8, 2026
said 12
was 3
missed · 4.0× high
- 05
/command ships in 21 days from the commit.
Timeline estimates · Jun 18, 2026
said 21
was 27
partial · 1.3× low
- 06
Four slash pipelines live at launch: research, launch, post, operate.
Technical estimates · Jun 18, 2026
said 4
was 4
hit · on the number
- 07
indieterminal.com gets 500 unique visitors in the first 14 days.
Growth estimates · Jun 11, 2026
said 500
was 186
missed · 2.7× high
Waiting on reality
If guest /research ships, 40 unauthenticated runs in 14 days.
40 runs · due Sep 15, 2026
Accuracy by kind of estimate
- Timeline estimates83%
1 outcome · on average you expected 1.3× less than happened
- Technical estimates67%
3 outcomes · on average you expected 1.8× more than happened
- Growth estimates0%
2 outcomes · on average you expected 3.2× more than happened
- Distribution estimates0%
1 outcome · on average you expected 4.0× more than happened
Decisions on the record
- 01committed
Ship IndieTerminal as a public slash-command dashboard, or keep building a PTY terminal in private?
A URL a founder can type into is a better test than another month of emulator work nobody can run.
mixedShipping the real codebase beat waiting on an emulator. Naming it a terminal after that did not get easier.
0% unique visitors · 83% days to public /command · 100% pipelines shipping
- 02committed
Let /post send to X and Slack as soon as the draft is ready, or keep the approval queue?
If the product is a gate, removing the gate is a different product.
succeededA queue without a posting cadence is a lock on an unused door. Protect the gate, then measure whether anyone walks up to it.
100% leaked posts · 0% approved posts
- 03committed
Open-source kiaan-mittal/indieterminal, or keep the repo private while the site is public?
The site is the demo. The registry is still changing too fast to freeze in public.
mixedHiding the repo did not produce users. It did produce a Brain that has to argue from a README.
0% days between pushes · 0% signups
- 04open
Should /research and /scan run without a Clerk session, so a browser agent can operate IndieTerminal?
pending guest /research runs